So it is official. After a debacle of an election, with fog stopping a helicopter picking up ballot boxes, a boat breaking down, a golf club wielding man smashing some ballot boxes, a huge number of spoiled ballot papers, but in the end SNP get in 47-46 over labour.
A historic result; but I know what we are all waiting for is the result of Tony’s Test: his challenge to predict the result. Well I don’t know who has won just yet … more delays. I think we should go Electoral Commission to complain …
But what I can tell you, is how I did with my predictions. Well, half way through the night, I was pretty confident, but I fell at the last hurdle …
- SNP: Predicted: 42 Actual: 47 Difference: 5
- Labour: Predicted: 43 Actual: 46 Difference: 3
- Lib Dems: Predicted: 17 Actual: 16 Difference: 1
- Conservative: Predicted: 16 Actual: 17 Difference: 1
- Greens: Predicted: 10 Actual: 2 Difference: 8
- Ind: Predicted: 1 Actual: 1 Difference: 0
Total difference: 18
Could be worse, but could have been a lot better. Pretty much like the whole night!
Tags: Predictions, Scottish Elections, SNP
Update: Apparently I won! Wahay!!! The next nearest person was 22 points, so I get the pint (or was a meal out?). So Matthew (see comment below) is victorious about the election result, but at least I win the other competition. Hey Matthew, can’t win ‘em all…
A new dawn.
And now the hard work starts.
You can’t deny that the voters of Scotland have spoken loud and proud that years and years and years of Labour hegemony is over. Whatever happens in the next days and weeks until we have a new First Minister and a new Executive, the political landscape of Alba has changed forever.
It is just too tough to call right now. I always thought that Lib Dems would agree to a coalition with the SNP but agree to disagree on the referendum, but I’m not so sure now. Whatever happens, I am firm in the view that Labour has no moral authority to govern in Scotland during the lifespan of this parliament.
And I am not that disappointed. I fundamentally disagree with independence. But that seems a long way with this result. I am not sure I can even see a referendum taking place …
My best guess would be that SNP and Lib Dems do form a coallition, but there would be no referendum. I can’t see any other way for this election result to produce a government or first minister.
… and always fun to have little teasing with you matthew! …
Do you think there will be a referendum?
Hi guys,
I’m going to be the dissenting voice here for a change – I don’t think there will be a coalition although I think the Lib Dems will probably give alex Salmond enough votes to be first minister. I’m not unhappy about the SNP being the largest party, I agree it was probably time for a change. There won’t be a referendum on independance – there are not enough votes to get that through parliament.
I agree with Matthew in his comments on my blog, that the negative campaign by labour and the vilification of the SNP by certain elements of the press were a disgrace. I hope Alex Salmond has the integrity to resign from his Westminister constituency now (but suspect he won’t) – He cannot represent two different constituencies in two different parliaments and be first minister without neglecting one. His constituents deserve a resignation.
My fear, and why I can’t share Matthew’s excitement about this result is that it seemd to represent a lurch back towards two party politics which has served the UK not so well over the past years. I hope I’m wrong and we see some genuine willingness to work together and form concensus on issue by issue basis from all sides. I see little evidence of that from Labour and alot will depend on the SNP – I fear a situation where the focus becomes on a struggle for power, especially with things so close, where one by-election could turn the parliament. In that situation the SNP become focussed on staying in power and Labour on regaining it. That is where the absence of the smaller parties (who can bring attention and pressure and work towards concensus on the issues) will be most keenly felt. I thought that they added not only colour but genuine strength to the parliament and were heavily involved in some of the most positive achievements of the last parliament.
At the moment, I reserve judgment – the SNP deserve their chance to see what they can do and i hope they will use it to promote a positive agenda. However, at the moment I’m not entirely optimistic.
Thanks Tony … I think you may be right, given the sunday paper reports. It seems as though Lib Dems are saying they won’t enter into a coalition with SNP unless the referendum is off the table. It is off the table anyway, but i can’t see Alex Salmond agreeing to that. The papers seem to be favouring an SNP minority government, which should be interesting.
However, there seems a long way to go before we definately get to that point.
As i have stated elsewhere, i am fundamentally opposed to independence, but if SNP were to drop that, i think it would be good to see them in government, and have a go … They do seem to want to work with others, and that is good.
It does seem as though Alex Salmond is key to the SNP. I can’t imagine an SNP with Nicola Sturgeon being as popular …
well clearly you have a gift for prophetic political punditry
I wish! I could make it a sideline … bet on the elections?!?!
i see a dark horse… no no, wait, now i see a rider on a white horse…
… and she’ll be wearing be wearing pink pyjamas when she comes…
PS. are you making a mockery of my serious post of politics????