Pin the Tail on the Donkey (or Scottish Election Predictions)

Tony, over at his blog, has posted some predictions for the Scottish Elections on Thursday, and he has challenged others to do the same. He has promised to buy the winner a pint (but that may just be a promise for his friends, but you could always try your luck!). I am not sure how he is going to work out who has the best prediction … no doubt there will be some trickery and he will wrangle out of buying anyone anything!

So here are my predictions:

• I don’t think SNP will do as well as the polls are predicting … a small last minute swing in the polls makes a pretty large difference, and I don’t think they will get the largest number of seat.
• Labour will do badly, but will benefit from the “anyone but SNP” vote.
• Lib Dems will be King makers, but I don’t think they will gain any seats.
• The Tories will be invisible and the Cameron effect will have no effect north of border (or north of Watford for that matter!).
• I think the Greens will do well, and I am predicting they pick up a number of seats.
• The only independent or small party that I think will win a seat will be Margo MacDonald (Independent), with Scottish Socialists, Solidarity, and Christian parties picking up no seats at all!

So I think the seats will go:

• Labour: 43 (-7)
• SNP: 42 (+15)
• Lib Dem: 17 (no change)
• Tories: 16 (-2)
• Green: 10 (+3)
• Independent: 1 (-3)
• SSP: 0 (-6)

[Update:  A new poll was released yesterday (Tuesday 1st May) showing support for SNP had fallen and Labour had increased.  SNP still marginally ahead, and according to this poll would win by 1 seat.  I may be a bit light for the Lib Dems, but feeling quite confident about the top two ... I'm looking forward to that pint, that Tony has definately promised in his comments ... maybe it wasn't quite as random as pinning a tail on donkey! :smile: ].

So who I am going to vote for?

Well, I am not sure, but I am in the “anyone but SNP” camp. I think Alex Salmond is a canny political operator. He is the biggest political character in the Scottish Elections, but for someone who is an economist, I just don’t trust his pronouncements on the Scottish Economy.

He says that Scotland would be better off independent. If Scotland got a substantial amount of the oil revenue from the North Sea, that would offset the loss of extra public spending Scotland enjoys from Westminster. Clearly the economics are difficult, but it seems to me at best, it is short term answer.

Here’s a heads up for Alex: The Oil is going to run out!

And at last someone, who has rather better credentials than me, has written about the economies of an independent Scotland: Evan Davis, the BBC economics editor.

So that means I will probably vote tactically to make sure the SNP don’t get in (I know that SNP getting into power doesn’t mean independence, but it does bring it higher up the political agenda). Not much chance in my constituency (Edinburgh South) as the SNP came forth in the 2003 elections, even losing to the Tories!

I am still intrigued about how Duncan is going to vote over at What’s your point caller? The Tories are ahead on his poll, and despite repeated attempts on my behalf to rig his poll (by voting more than once), I can’t!

Tags: Scottish Elections, Scotland, SNP, Alex Salmond, Predictions